The Youth Voters
by Jay R. Mandle
Young voters were a driving force behind the Democratic Party’s resounding success in the 2022 midterm elections. The hope was that their political enthusiasm would be sustained, and in 2024 contribute to defeating Donald Trump in the presidential election. That hope, however, may now be in doubt. That pessimistic conclusion seems to be a common takeaway from a recent New York Times/Siena poll of young people (18-29 year olds) in six battleground states -Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. When respondents were asked how they would vote in 2024 if the choice were between Biden and Trump, the result was a virtual tie – 47 percent for Biden and 46 percent for Trump.
In this, two issues stand out: young people’s belief that the economy is doing poorly, and their aversion to Joe Biden as president.
With regard to the economy, contrary to trends in most macroeconomic indicators there was virtual unanimity among respondents that it was performing badly: 93 percent rated economic conditions as either only fair or poor. The poll also indicated the significance of the economy to young people: 62 percent chose economic issues, such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living, as most important in influencing their support for candidates.
The survey also provides insight into their opposition to Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic 2024 presidential nominee. Only 5 percent of these young people strongly approve of the way Biden is handling his job as President. In contrast, 38 percent strongly disapprove. An overwhelming 78 percent believe that he is too old to be president, and 71 percent think that he does not possess “the mental sharpness to be an effective president.”
The aversion of young people to Biden, however, does not spill over to Democratic Party candidates generally. When asked to assume that in 2024 Biden will not be on the ballot, 55 percent say that they either definitely or probably would vote for a Democratic presidential candidate. In response to that same assumption, only 34 percent report that they probably or definitively would vote for Trump.
The views of these young people were less negative when queried about Biden’s handling of specific issues. They believe he would do a better job than Trump when it comes to immigration, abortion, and protecting democracy. But at the same time, they think that Trump will do a better job with regard to the economy, national security and Israel. In sum, this survey of young voters suggests that, as a candidate, Biden has formidable weaknesses that could deny him the youth vote in 2024.
Analysis of the 2022 midterm Democratic successes, however, suggests a strategy that might succeed in rekindling young voters’ political enthusiasm in 2024. It was social issues that were most powerful in bringing home the youth vote for Democrats in the earlier election. 2022 exit polls by Tufts University Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reveal that “young people (18-29) who voted in the 2022 midterms said abortion was the top issue influencing their vote.” Furthermore, “4 in 5 youths who believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases voted for a Democratic candidate to the House of Representatives.” Even Biden was seen in a more favorable light a year ago. As reported by Tufts, “young people who voted in the 2022 election had the highest approval rating of President Biden of any age group (53 %).”
It is possible that Biden advocates could move more young people to support and vote for him if social issues such as abortion and the protection of democracy became central components of the 2024 campaign. These and issues like climate change have clearly been reliable in motivating and energizing young voters in the past.
It is nonetheless the case that opinion surveys such as New York/Siena and exit polling such as the Tufts study should be used with caution in developing electoral strategies. Each, however, does have a role to play in crafting political campaigns. Surveys provide important information about what people are feeling and thinking at a particular point in time, and exit polls report on how they actually vote. While young people may be grumbling today about the economy and resisting the thought that an octogenarian should occupy the White House, it is possible that those specific concerns could recede during the coming year. This would especially be the case if the social issues that were dominant for young people during the midterms continue to be salient.
Social issues won for Democrats in 2022 and, if highlighted in 2024, might do so again.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jay Mandle is the Emerita W. Bradford Wiley Professor of Economics, Emeritus,at Colgate University. His many books include Change Elections to Change America: Democracy Matters Students In Action, and Creating Political Equality: Elections As a Public Good,. Mandle’s regular monthly editorials, Money On My Mind, appear on the Democracy Matters website, and explore the role of private money in politics and other critical social issues.
The views expressed in Money On My Mind are those of the author, (not necessarily those of Democracy Matters, and are meant to stimulate discussion.